Skip to main content
Paul Welty, PhD AI, WORK, AND STAYING HUMAN

· found · management · technology

The future of American jobs

The future of American jobs

Explore how AI and e-commerce will reshape American jobs by 2030, and discover the opportunities for workers in evolving industries.

“Nearly 12 million Americans in occupations with shrinking demand may need to switch jobs by 2030.That’s according to a new McKinsey Global Institute study that examined how the rise of AI and other factors like an aging population and e-commerce could impact US employment in the years ahead."—

Jobs at Risk That AI Will Replace, Change the Most by 2030: McKinsey

The agent-shaped org chart

Every real org has the same topology: principal, role-holder, specialists. Staff AI maps onto it, node for node, and the cost collapse shows up in the deliverables that were always just human-handoff overhead.

AI as staff, not software

Two frames for what AI is doing to work. The tool frame makes tools smarter. The staff frame makes roles unnecessary. Those aren't the same product, the same company, or the same industry.

Knowledge work was never work

Knowledge work was always coordination between humans who couldn't share state directly. The artifacts were never the work. They were the overhead — and AI just made the overhead optional.

The work of being available now

A book on AI, judgment, and staying human at work.

The practice of work in progress

Practical essays on how work actually gets done.

The file I almost made twice

A small operational footgun that runs everywhere — building a parallel system when the one you have is fine.

The actor doesn't get to be the verifier

The worker isn't lying. The worker is reporting what it thought it did, which is always one step removed from what the world actually shows. The fix isn't more self-honesty. The fix is a different pair of eyes.

Shopping is the last mile

Every meal planning app treats cooking as the hard problem and shopping as a logistics detail. They have it backwards. Cooking is mostly solved. Shopping is the last mile.

Productivity and offices

Discover why traditional offices boost productivity and remain essential despite the rise of remote work. Uncover the truth behind workplace effectiveness.

The challenges of remote collaboration

Discover effective strategies to overcome the unique challenges of remote collaboration and enhance teamwork from home.

The impact of AI on white-collar jobs

Explore how AI transforms white-collar jobs, highlighting the balance between automation and the enduring value of skilled human work.